Sunday, 30 June 2013

ASX 200 bearish false break above 5000 confirmed by trend line break

Weekly chart of the ASX 200 illustrates that a bearish false break above 5000 has been confirmed by a trend line break, implying that the market is now headed lower. Only a rally above 5000 would negate the bearish outlook. Chart includes after hours trade through to the end of last week. First meaningful potential support is around 4500, below that 4000. There is much greater bearish potential, given that European markets are turning down from the top of multi decade trading ranges (eg. see UK FTSE and German DAX charts), the US is on the cusp of doing likewise (see S&P 500 chart), and Japan is beginning the next leg down of its multi decade bear market (see Nikkei chart).




S&P 500 testing the 2007 highs from above

Monthly chart illustrates that the US S&P 500 is testing the 2007 highs from above, and that a sustained move below that high would return the S&P to a multi decade trading range, opening the possibility of the market declining toward the 2009 low in coming years. The stock indexes of other developed nations have recently turned lower from equivalent long term resistance levels (eg. see UK FTSE, German DAX, Australian ASX 200 charts) or are beginning the next leg lower of multi decade bear markets (see Japanese Nikkei charts). The inter market divergence cannot last indefinitely, either the US market must drag others higher, or turn lower itself.


Daily chart next.


Nikkei turns lower from test of two decade old down trend line




FTSE turns lower from test of trend line drawn from 1999 and 2007 highs



DAX turns lower from test of 2000 and 2007 highs



Gold breaks lower from 14 year old trend channel

Monthly chart shows Gold breaking lower from an almost 14 year old trend channel.


Zooming in next to the weekly chart. I suggested several times in recent months that a move lower from the illustrated down trend channel would indicate an acceleration of the down trend. It did.


Zooming in next to the daily chart, illustrates that moving averages can be a powerful tool in a trending market.



Silver still targeting below 14.00 but may now consolidate or rally from test of dual trend channel support

Weekly chart shows Silver's break lower from a multi year descending triangle, with the illustrated measured target around 13.59.


Next chart is also a weekly, showing the market testing trend channel support. Anything could happen, either a rally or an immediate break lower.


Next chart is a daily, showing the market testing (another) trend channel support. Repeating the above comment, anything could happen, either a rally or an immediate break lower.


AUD/USD moving lower within daily chart down trend channel

First the weekly chart. The bearish break from the triangle offers a measured target of 0.82, which coincides with the 2010 low. Only a move back above the illustrated resistance zone would negate that target.


Daily chart shows the market moving lower within a down trend channel from the April high.


AUD/JPY daily chart shows turn down now from trend line resistance

First the weekly chart for context. Linear scale.


Daily chart shows turn down now from trend line resistance. Log scale.



EUR/USD trending lower, nearing test of Head and Shoulders top neckline?

Weekly chart shows the EUR/USD trending lower.


Daily chart shows the market testing an internal trend line, on the way to a test of the Head and Shoulders top neckline? A break of the neckline would target a move to below 1.20.


USD/JPY headed for another test of 100 and then key resistance around 102?

Monthly chart shows key long term resistance around 102.


Daily chart bullish trend line break hints at a new up trend, yet to be confirmed by the moving averages.


GBP/USD trending lower following bearish break from multi year triangle

The GBP/USD is trending lower following the bearish break from a multi year triangle, illustrated on the weekly chart.


Daily chart illustrates potential trend line support. Look for an acceleration lower if the 1.50 level is broken.