Thursday, 20 June 2013

Nikkei the weakest major global index, outlook bearish on monthly, weekly, and daily charts

When I used to trade stocks, if the market outlook was bearish, then I liked to be short the weakest stocks. So if global equity markets are turning down, I want to be short the leader, the weakest major stock index of all. No doubt that dubious distinction currently belongs to the Nikkei.

Monthly chart trend is clearly down.


Weekly chart shows bearish false break above the illustrated trend channel.


Daily chart trend is down.



Silver testing daily chart trend channel support


Will Gold rally from long term trend channel support?

Will Gold rally from long term trend channel support? The focus of my Gold posts in recent months has been mostly on the daily charts, so I haven't shown this trend channel for a while, possibly since last year. But right now, it's probably of interest!


Taking things to a ludicrous extreme, zooming in to the one minute chart, there are 5 waves up from the daily low. So the Elliott Wave model suggests that at very small degree of trend, the trend is now up and a rally from the monthly chart trend line is beginning. How long will it last? Nobody knows.



Today's USD strength is counter trend in most pairs eg. EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY but not AUD/USD

Today's USD strength is counter trend in most pairs, eg. EUR, GBP, JPY but notably not AUD. The USD may well continue to strengthen in coming days, chart patterns favour that outcome, but the odds favour that counter trend moves will be choppy, until/unless market action is sustained enough to turn the trend.

EUR/USD chart pattern is bearish but trend is up.


GBP/USD chart pattern is bearish but trend is up.


JPY/USD breakout is bullish but trend is down.


AUD/USD trend is down but trend line support is nearby.


AUD/USD could now waterfall lower, trading below key support

Weekly chart illustrates that the AUD/USD is trading below the key support zone and below trend channel support.


EUR/USD Head and Shoulders top pattern suggests this week's high will hold

Looks like the right shoulder has peaked.