Wednesday, 19 June 2013

S&P 500 has near term options

On Monday I posted an Elliott Wave count for the S&P 500 that suggested an explosive move upwards was possible. The futures action since that post has seen a rally, but a choppy rally, not the explosive rally that the EW count called for. So it is worth considering alternate scenarios.

The first chart shows Monday's EW count for market action since the May high, on an hourly chart showing updated price action. This scenario could still be unfolding, but if so we need to see upside acceleration tonight.

Next I show a less immediately bullish EW count. Though still ultimately bullish, as following the C wave and the accompanying completion of a three wave correction, the S&P would rally to new highs. 

There are of course an unlimited number of alternate scenarios, some immediately bullish, others describing further corrective market action. On the evidence presented by the market to date, showing no impulsive decline from the May high, under the EW model all alternate scenarios are ultimately bullish, ie. calling for a move above the May high.  

Zooming out to daily, weekly, and monthly charts supports the call for higher prices, on the grounds that the trend is up on all those timeframes. Daily chart is shown first. 

The weekly chart shows the S&P could be forming a bearish megaphone top pattern, which may be completed with a rally to the upper trend line. Or it could be completed already, albeit not in ideal form. Perhaps the hourly chart waves are fooling me.

When completed, the weekly chart megaphone would be followed by the S&P returning to an an arguably 16 year old trading range. As I stated above, the megaphone could be complete at current levels, albeit not taking ideal form, but I will give further upside the benefit of the doubt until either the market meets the upper megaphone trend line or the market falls decisively below the 2007 high, so 1550 on a monthly close basis.