Monday, 17 June 2013

S&P 500 futures rallying from corrective trend channel, EW count suggests explosive move ahead

Daily chart shows the S&P 500 futures rallying free from a corrective trend channel during European trade.

Zooming in to the hourly chart shows an Elliott Wave count suggesting an explosive 3rd of a 3rd wave higher lies directly ahead.

Zooming all the way back out to the weekly chart shows the S&P could be forming a bearish megaphone top pattern, which may be completed with a rally to the upper trend line.

When completed, the weekly chart megaphone would be followed by the S&P returning to an an arguably 16 year old trading range. The megaphone could be complete at current levels, albeit not taking ideal form, but I will give further upside the benefit of the doubt until either the market meets the upper megaphone trend line or the market falls decisively below the 2007 high, so 1550 on a monthly close basis.

ASX 200 settles once again below long term resistance

The weekly chart including after hours trade illustrates the ASX 200 settling once again below the illustrated resistance zone. I use the word 'settling' slightly tongue in cheek. Nothing is ever settled in financial markets. I'll keep an eye on this market but currently I think there are better near term opportunities elsewhere.

Gold still trending lower on daily chart, despite positive seasonal influences

Last week I posted that in recent times, buying Gold mid year and holding til year end has been profitable in most years. Despite that positive seasonal influence, Gold is clearly still trending lower on the daily chart. A rally above the early June high would be required to hint that Gold's near trend may be turning up. Also keep an eye on Silver, if it can beat the nearby down trend line that would add confirmation to any rally by Gold.

Silver still trending down on daily chart, channeling beautifully

Could the AUD/USD beat its 2011 high?

Could the AUD/USD beat its 2011 high? The Elliott Wave model suggests that it will. The weekly chart illustrates that the initial move down in 2011 was a three wave corrective move a-b-c, the first piece of a larger corrective looking pattern. The corrective nature of the pattern implies that a move above the 2011 will be forthcoming. That said, a rally above the top of the illustrated support zone is required to raise confidence in the bullish case.

EUR/USD peaking in right Shoulder of ten month old Head and Shoulders top?

Is the EUR/USD peaking in right Shoulder of ten month old Head and Shoulders top? If so, the daily chart illustrates that it must turn lower more or less immediately.

Zooming out to the weekly shows that the market is approaching the down trend line drawn from the 2011 and 2013 highs.

GBP/USD probing above three month old trend channel

False break higher would be indicated by a move below 1.36. Failing that, the near term trend is up.