Tuesday, 11 June 2013

ASX 200 looks like the Nikkei did in 1996, when the latter was 75% higher than current levels

Is it just my imagination? Or does the ASX 200's behaviour since the 2007 top through to now look similar to the Nikkei's behaviour from its 1989 top through to mid 1996? With even more similarity evident between the ASX 200's behaviour from the 2009 low to now, compared to the Nikkei's behaviour from the 1992 low through to mid 1996? 

ASX 200


Nikkei


What did the Nikkei do immediately after mid 1996? It kicked off the next leg down of a bear market that continues to this day. Back in 1996 the Nikkei was 75% higher than it is now. Almost 200% higher than the levels it saw last year. Food for thought.


S&P 500 futures sharply lower, having turned down from trend line resistance


AUD/USD smashes through long term support, but EW count and trend channel suggest rally due soon

Weekly chart shows that the AUD/USD has smashed through long term support. As stated many times previously, the measured target from the triangle breakout is around 82 cents, though it's not likely that the market will travel there in a straight line.


Daily chart illustrates a nearly complete Elliott Wave impulsive sequence and trend channel. When wave 5 is complete, the market will rally or at least consolidate in a corrective pattern for a period. Rule of thumb after a 5 wave decline is to look for a move at least back to the high of wave 4, so around 98 cents.



Nikkei turns lower from trend line retest

Daily chart shows the Nikkei turning lower from trend line retest.


Monthly chart shows in no uncertain terms that the long term trend remains down.