Thursday, 6 June 2013

S&P 500 near term trend is down but larger degree up trend may not be complete

Daily chart illustrates the near term down trend, an interpretation corroborated by the completed throw over of the preceding up trend channel.

Weekly chart illustrates a bearish megaphone top scenario, which may (may) not be complete. Further rally could occur toward the top trend line, though this is not required.

Monthly chart next. At this time, bearing in mind the potentially incomplete megaphone, a decisive move below the 2007 high is required to suggest the S&P has topped and returned to its arguably sixteen year old trading range, which would open the path for a test of the 2009 lows (!) What would constitute a 'decisive' move below the 2007 high? To my eyes, a monthly close below 1550 or an intra month move below 1500. As I have stated many times previously, I don't trust the breakout by the S&P above the 2007 high, unless it can beat the 2007 high by a greater percentage than the false break lower in 2009 beat the 2002 low. A move over 1785 or so is required to meet that criteria and escape the gravitational pull of the trading range. Unless that happens I am looking for a devastatingly swift move to below the 2007 high and subsequently much lower.

ASX 200 breaks below support zone, now testing trend line support

Weekly chart illustrates the break below the support zone and also the trend line test. Charts include after hours trade.

Daily chart zooms in to better show the trend line test.

AUD/USD approaching possible support around 94 but triangle target is 82

Triangle measured target of 82 is calculated by subtracting the tallest height of the triangle (17) from the breakout level 99. 82 coincides more or less with the 2010 low.

EUR/USD still forming right Shoulder of Head & Shoulders top on daily chart

AUD/JPY testing possible support at down trend channel line on daily chart