Tuesday, 30 April 2013

S&P 500 makes New York close record high, on light volume

The S&P 500 cash index made a record New York close this morning (Oz time). It did not make a record intra day high.

The following daily chart of the cash index illustrates light volume last night, a warning sign for the immediate bullish case.

The next daily chart shows the S&P on a futures basis, and illustrates that it is once again wrestling with a parallel trend line angle that has given it pause many times in the past.

AUD/USD has no business above 1.04 if it is going to break lower in coming weeks

The AUD/USD has been range bound for nine months now, give or take, as the daily chart below illustrates. The bearishly crossed 18 and 40 day simple moving averages indicate the trend is down at this time frame. The market needs to stay below the 40 for the down trend to remain intact. Above the 40 at 1.04ish would indicate a bias for the market to head back to the top of the range.

Zooming in to the hourly chart shows the market channeling upwards, to my eyes in a corrective fashion ie. correcting the preceding decline, implying that new lows lie ahead. A sustained break above the top channel line would give the currently gentle ascent a more impulsive look and suggest that 1.04 would be a speedbump on the way to higher prices. A break below the channel would threaten the bottom of the daily chart range.