Monday, 8 April 2013

AUD/USD correction of March rally is likely complete, headed toward 1.05 again #aud

The 4 hour chart shows the AUD/USD rallying from the down trend channel drawn from the most recent test of 1.05. The Elliott Wave count shows a 1-2-3-4-5 impulsive rally followed by a completed A-B-C flat correction. The correction ended in the area of the 4th wave... textbook stuff. If the correction is indeed complete, a new 1-2-3-4-5 rally is now commencing, toward and likely beyond another test of 1.05. h/t to @elwavesurfer for his wave count, which I am showing an abreviated version of.

Zooming out to the weekly chart shows that if 1.05 is beaten, it will indicate a breakout from the illustrated triangle, with a measured target of 1.22, calculated by adding the tallest height of the triangle to the breakout price.

Zooming back in to the daily chart shows that if 1.05 is cleared, 1.06 is a possible hurdle. Given that the triangle is a larger pattern, I favour it being a hurdle that is easily cleared, but it's dangerous to make assumptions.

EUR/USD rallies from megaphone bottom #eur

The 4 hour chart shows the EUR/USD rallying from the illustrated megaphone bottom.

Zooming out the daily chart shows the market has rallied up through the trend line drawn from the February high.

Zooming out further the weekly chart shows the market is rallying from a retest of the trend line drawn from the 2011 high.