Monday, 18 March 2013

ASX 200 Head and Shoulders top forming? #asx

Is the ASX 200 forming a Head and Shoulders top? Note the question mark, and the chart below (includes after hours trade). Worth considering. In any case, more certain is that 4975ish is key support. A breach should see this market trend lower. In the meantime, at this time frame the trend is up.

S&P 500 started the year with a gap up, has it topped with a gap down? #spx

Let's start with the microscopic view, the hourly chart trend channel I have showed several times recently. Trade on Friday broke the trend line, ahead of today's plunge.

Will the above trend line break lead to larger degree weakness? Zooming out, the daily chart suggests a move below the nearby trend line would be the first confirmation of that, so below 1520ish. A break lower from the trend channel, where the lower line is currently 1480, would provide further confirmation. Til then the trend at this time frame is up. Note also the gap to start 2013 and the gap today. Will we see another breakaway gap?

Zooming out to the long term monthly chart view, don't forget that the S&P 500 is trading very close to long term resistance at the 2000 and 2007 highs. I will be surprised if we see an upside break, but I have been surprised many times before by markets.

Anyone watching twitter closely today would have seen me tweet "My short term system flipped long to short late last week. Long term [long only] system flat since 2007. Medium term long." Doesn't take too much imagination to see what time frames I refer to as short, medium, and long. Though there is a heck of a lot more to the entry component of my systems than trend lines, and a heck of a lot more to the total systems than just the entry. Of course.

NASDAQ 100 watch that lower wedge trend line and possible big Head and Shoulders top #ndx

EUR/USD falls back within down trend channel #eur

Will the top channel line once again act as resistance?