Saturday, 16 March 2013

ASX 200 up trend slows #asx

The ASX 200 weekly chart shows that the trend is up, with the area just below 5000 acting as key support, say 4975 to 5000. That support needs to be broken before any call is made that the up trend from last years lows is finished. In the meantime, the trend is up.

Daily chart shows the up trend slowing, with the market falling below the recent up trend channel and then finding support at the trend line drawn from the December low. Failure to quickly get back above yesterday's high at 5120ish would open the possibility that a head and shoulders top could form.

S&P 500 a hairs breadth from record high, riding up daily chart trend channel resistance #sp500

The weekly chart shows the market is very close to its all time all sessions high of 1576 from 2007. The cash market this week got even closer to its record, drawing with in 2 points of the 1565 seen on October 10 2007.

Daily chart shows the market riding up trend channel resistance.

Hourly chart shows a break of the recent up trend channel, though with the market rallying from its overnight lows it would be surprising if this break leads to larger degree weakness. 

Gold's long term bull market takes baby steps closer to resuming #gold

The daily chart shows that this week Gold broke out of the recent steep down trend and established itself back within the down trend channel drawn from the October high. So two baby step towards establishing an up trend at this time frame, and possibly resuming the up trends at higher degree.

Weekly chart shows the market is range bound at this time frame, though the small green candle this week is encouraging. Baby steps... and previously in this price area of the current range, the first green candle has indicated that the low is in.

Monthly chart shows that the market needs to fall a long way before the long term up trend is challenged.

Silver returns to channel drawn from October's high #silver

Silver has returned to the trend channel drawn from the October. Unlike Gold, it is some distance above the lows of mid last year.

Weekly chart raises the question, has Silver broken free from a descending triangle, or is it still within one?

AUD/USD range bound #aud

The AUD/USD weekly chart illustrates that the market has risen once again through the upper triangle trend line, which to me indicates that rather than showing a false upside break from the triangle, the pattern is morphing in to something else. It's time to erase those trend lines. The triangle could be redrawn with the upper line positioned higher, or something else entirely could be unfolding.

Zooming in to the daily chart shows that for now, the market is simply range bound.

EUR/USD breaks higher from down trend channel #eur

EUR/USD daily chart shows the market breaking higher from the recent down trend channel. Start of a new up trend, or a consolidation?

The weekly chart is not much help in answering that question. The trend lines I have drawn suggest the long term tide is driving the market downwards, but it is not a clean, high confidence trend or picture at this time frame. For my trading I stick to daily and hourly, so no biggie.  

USD/JPY down on the week, still trending higher #jpy

Daily chart shown here. Longer term view was posted most recently yesterday.

GBP/USD rallies back inside daily and weekly chart trend channels #gbp

GBP/USD weekly chart shows the market rallying back inside the illustrated trend channel. The triangle pattern still calls for much lower prices, and so long as the market stays below the triangle, that's my roadmap. So why show the channel? There are always many alternate paths for a market to take. I like to keep an open mind, as that helps me trade according to what the market does, rather than what I think it should do. At some times with some markets I struggle to keep an open mind, but don't we all?

Daily chart shows this week's rally has brought the market back inside the recent down trend channel, though clearly still trending down.