Friday, 15 March 2013

S&P 500 below 1558 would break up trend, but for now channeling higher #spx

A move below 1558 by the S&P 500 would break the up trend on the hourly chart. I know it's only an hourly chart, but when a market is as stretched and fragmented as this one, seriously overbought on low volume, an hourly chart trend line break can take on great significance. In the meantime, the trend is up.

USD/JPY rally is less than half way to its measured target #jpy

Treating the wedge on the following long term monthly chart as an Elliott Wave ending diagonal, the measured target is the point where the wedge began at around 125. The USD/JPY has so far rallied around 20 of the targeted 50 points. Will the measured target eventually be hit? If so, and there is no guarantee, there will surely be some twists and turns along the way.

Zooming in to the daily chart shows the market bumping up against parallel trend line resistance though continuing to strongly trend higher, with no sign of a reversal at this time frame.

Nikkei hits 50% retracement of decline from 2007 peak #nikkei

Weekly chart shows the 50% retracement, which coincides with possible resistance around the early 2008 lows. Trend channel analysis indicates the rally could have further to go.

Zooming in to the daily chart shows the rally bumping in to parallel trend line resistance. The rising trend line may slow the rally, but there is no sign of a reversal at this time frame.

ASX 200 up trend finished but finds support at trend line drawn from December low #asx

The up trend from the November low was finished by yesterday's downwards break from the trend channel, but the market has found some support at a trend line drawn from the December low. The market needs to get back above 5100-5115 quickly or we'll have a Head and Shoulders top on our hands and current support will prove temporary. Next level of support below yesterday's low could be at the late Feb lows, in the 4980-5000 zone. Below that and I think we'll have a sizable top on our hands. Let's not get too far ahead of ourselves.

US stock market advance fragmented, NASDAQ 100 yet to join the party #dow #spx #ndx

The US stock market advance is a fragmented thing.

The Dow is hitting all time highs, as shown on the following weekly chart. The Dow is a very narrow measure, reflecting the values of only 30 stocks.

The S&P 500 (all sessions) illustrated next is only a dozen or so points from its record high, while the cash index got to within 2 points of its record in last night's trade.

The NASDAQ 100 is floundering around the 50% (!) retracement of its decline from the 2000 all time high to the bottom in late 2002, which coincides with trend channel resistance.

Zooming in to the NASDAQ 100, trade over the past year takes the shape of a Head and Shoulders top. The NASDAQ needs to join the broader rally soon and beat last year's high, or it may end up spoiling the party.