Saturday, 9 March 2013

USD strengthens but not against stocks. Weekly and daily charts for ASX 200, S&P 500, AUD/USD, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, Gold and Silver

I'm putting all charts in a single post tonight for two reasons. Partly because I haven't much time this evening, but foremost to highlight the disconnect between the USD's continual plunge against stocks (just another way of saying you need more cash to buy stocks now than you did last week), and its recent rise against (almost) everything else.

Let's start with a daily chart of the S&P 500. Clearly trending up, with no sign yet that the trend is over. But end it will, sooner or later. Will it end through exhaustion, with a slowing trend gently rolling to the downside, or following a final acceleration in to a blow off top? Let's keep our eyes open.

S&P 500 weekly. Perhaps a break through the 2007 high would spark an acceleration of the rally? 

ASX 200 daily. As per the S&P 500, no indication here that the up trend is finished. 

ASX 200 weekly. Still over 1500 points below the 2007 peak.

Weeklies first then dailies for the currencies. Just quietly, GBP/USD is my favourite at the moment. 

AUD/USD weekly. False upwards break from triangle, market is likely to test lower boundary in coming weeks or months.

AUD/USD daily. Despite this week's rally from support the near term trend is down. 

EUR/USD weekly.

EUR/USD daily. Clear down trend channel.

GBP/USD weekly. Has broken lower from possible trend channel support. So long as the market stays below that channel, expect it to accelerate lower. Yes Virginia, it can decline faster than it has done recently. Have a look at 2008.

GBP/USD daily.

USD/JPY monthly instead of weekly. The wedge (or ending diagonal in EW speak) indicates that the market should move swiftly back to 125ish, where the wedge began. So far so good.

USD/JPY daily. Renewed and continuing USD strength, with new highs this week.

Gold weekly. Consolidating. No fresh lows for two weeks. Building a base to rally from? Possibly, but the near term trend remains down, albeit with potential support very close by.

Gold daily illustrates that near term down trend.

Silver weekly. 

Silver daily.