Wednesday, 13 February 2013

ASX 200 retakes 5000, retracing 50% of the decline from 2007's peak to 2009's low

Weekly chart first up, including some after hours trade, during which the market has come off a small amount from the magic 5000. Yes only 50% of the loss has been recovered. Dividends have paid some on top of that. But money in the bank has paid too, so investors who exited in 2007 can watch today's euphoria with some bemusement. Speculators didn't have to look too hard to find markets that have performed a lot better than this one since 2009. How high will the ASX 200 go now seems to be the question. A bit like how low will it go was the question at the 2009 low.

Gotta admit the recent run has been impressive. Is euphoria just beginning?

S&P 500 continues to grind higher

Last night I pointed to a throw-over and possible reversal, but said it was not a high confidence scenario as the throw-over was only small. The S&P 500 continues to grind higher, 3% or so below its all time high set in 2007.

Silver still testing trend line drawn from 2012 low, watch the 40 week MA, Gold relatively weak

Silver is still testing the trend line drawn from the 2012 low.

It's worth noting that Silver is also testing its 40 week moving average, which has acted as support many many times over the past decade. Doesn't mean it will act as support again, but it is certainly worth looking for a rally to begin from nearby current levels.

Gold daily chart may also be of interest. Too many lines to to tell a story. Relatively weaker than Silver. Which one is leading at the moment? We'll only be able to tell that in retrospect. It feels that a big move is just around the corner, one way or other.