Wednesday, 23 January 2013

S&P 500 does completed throwover of short term trend channel complete the bull run from 2009?

This bloke is as mad as a cut snake, is what you are thinking. Today the S&P 500 futures have completed a throwover (false break) above the trend channel that has contained its recent action. Does this throwover complete the recent up trend, and indeed the up trend from the 2009 low? Viewing short term charts alongside long term charts suggests its a possibility.

First is an hourly chart of recent action showing the completed throwover.

Next is a monthly chart illustrating long term parallel trend line resistance.

Last chart zooms in on the monthly to illustrate that any immediate bearish case based on those parallel trend lines has no more wriggle room. If the market beats last night's high, and certainly if it beats 1500, it'd be very surprising if it didn't re-test the 2007 high at 1575ish. Though anyone who says they are not regularly surprised by market behaviour is having a lend of themselves.