Saturday, 15 December 2012

S&P 500 has Santa done his dash?

This week's turn lower from the trend line drawn from the two November peaks, and the subsequent break lower through the up trend line drawn from the October and November lows, both throw doubt on the market's ability to stage a Santa rally this year.


Zooming out we see that the market has kissed goodbye to the up trend line drawn from the October 2011 low. The long upper shadow on this week's candle is the sign of a market struggling with strong overhead selling pressure.


Zooming out still further we see that the market recently tested the top line of a 15 year old trading range / channel and then turned lower. While a retest of that trend line cannot yet be ruled out, it is not required. The market appears to be setting up for a multi year decline.