Tuesday, 20 November 2012

S&P 500 daily trend is down, against the backdrop of a bearish tidal shift

Anybody buying the market at the moment is fighting the near term down trend, and also fighting a bearish tidal shift on the long term charts.

First chart is a long term monthly, the second a weekly of action since the 2007 peak, both of which show the S&P 500 declining from near the top of big trading ranges. That's the tidal shift.

Monthly.


Weekly.


Lastly the daily, showing a clear down trend.



ps. Recently I have been spending for too much time twittering away on twitter, and more usefully, gauging market sentiment by watching the twitterings of others. Given the sharp decline from mid October to last week, there is a remarkable amount of complacently bullish sentiment in the market, not just judged subjectively by observing twitter but also objectively by observing the low $VIX. If last week's low was some type of lasting panic low as many are hoping, sentiment would not now be so bullish.