Saturday, 1 September 2012

ASX 200 turns lower from completed bearish wedge and long term trend line test

The ASX 200 finished the week's after hours trading at 4329, up slightly from Friday's ASX close of 4316.

The daily chart shows the market has turned lower from a completed bearish wedge. The measured target of the wedge is a move toward the bottom of the wedge, at a minimum, although the market could morph in to another pattern or simply fail to meet its target. The bigger picture suggests that the decline indicated by the wedge target will be exceeded by a large margin. This chart includes after hours trade.


Zooming out to the weekly chart, shows that the ASX 200 has turned lower from the trend line drawn from the 2007 and 2011 highs.


S&P 500 turns lower from bearish wedge



DAX turns lower from bearish megaphone + head and shoulders patterns



AUD/USD daily and weekly charts suggest continued near term weakness

The AUD/USD daily chart shows a move below the recent short term down trend channel, suggesting that an acceleration of the recent move lower is beginning.


Zooming out to the weekly charts shows the market turning lower from trend line resistance, supporting the case for continued near term weakness.


EUR/USD probing towards long and short term trend channel resistance



Has the next leg of Gold's Bull Market begun?

Has the next leg of Gold's Bull Market begun? Of course, nobody knows, but the long term monthly chart shown below features two indications that it may have. Namely the monthly close above both (1) the down trend line drawn from the September 2011 and February 2012 peaks and (2) the 18 month moving average.


Silver rallies following trend channel retest

Silver last night rallied following this week's retest of the trend channel drawn with black lines from the April 2011 high, but closed the week on the trend line drawn in purple from the April 2011 and February 2012 highs. I have been tracking the trend channel for some time. The market will let us know next week if it considers the trend line to be important. Daily chart, log scale.