Saturday, 4 August 2012

ASX 200 rallies on daily, still trending down on monthly

The ASX 200 closed ASX trading on Friday afternoon at 4221. After hours the market rallied strongly to close the week at 4286, as shown on the daily chart below. If/while this weeks low holds, further rally is likely in coming weeks.


It's a new month so let's zoom out to a long term monthly chart. The story here has not changed, and will not change unless the market rallies through 4400, the level of the top down trend line shown below. The ASX 200 is trending downwards within a channel. The mid-channel line gives a target of low 3000s, while the lowest channel line gives a target of low 2000s.


S&P 500 begins August by rallying away from long term trend channel

Daily chart shows the S&P 500 rallying through the trend line drawn from the March high, only to butt up against the trend line drawn from more recent highs. A move through 1400 would likely clear the way for a retest of the March high.


It's a new month, so let's zoom way out to look at a long term monthly chart. The market has begun this month by rallying away from the trend channel, which has contained 95% of price action since the late 1990s. A rally though the March high could clear the way for a retest of the 2007 high. Until/unless the March high is beaten, a return to the trend channel quite possible.


DAX rallies to top of trend channel


AUD/USD rallies through trend line


EUR/USD rallies from trend line retest


Gold returns to triangle

As I have been saying for some weeks (months?) the June high and low are key.


Silver rallies from trend line retest