Saturday, 9 June 2012

ASX 200 it's anyone's guess where it will open on Tuesday

The ASX 200 closed ASX trade on Friday at 4064. It closed after hours trade on Saturday morning at 4102. Monday is a holiday for the ASX 200, so it is anyone's guess where it will open on Tuesday, given this weekend's Spanish banking bailout shenanigans, flood of Chinese data, and then the outcome of a full day's foreign trade on Monday. The following charts do not include after hours trade.

Daily chart shows that the trend line drawn from the 2011 lows may provide resistance at 4200, if the market can manage to rally that high. The lower trend line is drawn from the 2009 low.


Monthly chart shows that market is trending down towards the mid channel line around 3000, or perhaps the lower line around 2000.


S&P 500 has potential for a ferocious decline while below 1360

Monthly chart shows key trend line currently at 1360, with momentum showing a bearish divergence in to the recent high. Allow for a re-test of the trend line, but while the market remains below the 1360 level, it has the potential for a decline of similar ferocity to those seen from 2000 to 2002 and 2007 to 2009.



Daily chart shows re-drawn trend channel from previous S&P posts, suggesting that trend line resistance kicks in at 1350, so 1360 may be a stretch.



DAX daily and weekly candlestick charts

Daily, with down trend channel re-drawn since previous DAX post, to a more aggressive angle.


Weekly for context.


AUD/USD continues to trend down while below 1.02

Daily chart shows 1.02 as key, being the level of the top down trend line.


Weekly chart also suggests 1.02ish is key, as while the market remains below that level, it is below the up trend line, and open to decline.


EUR/USD turns lower at January low

The daily chart shows the EUR/USD turning lower at the January 2012 low.


Weekly chart almost looks like a head and shoulders top.


USD/JPY tests daily chart trend line

Daily chart speaks for itself. Trend channel has been re-drawn since previous USD/JPY post.


Monthly chart shows the recent breakout from a bullish wedge pattern, with market since falling back below the mid-90s low. I think the market needs to get back above the May high for the bullish case to remain live.


Gold daily and weekly candlestick charts

The daily chart shows a recent false upside trend line break. I think that the May low and this week's highs are key. Until either of those levels is broken, I have no high confidence near term view on this market.


The weekly chart shows that gold continues to trade above the trend line drawn from the 2008 and 2009 highs. A move below that line would open the way for a decline toward the trend line drawn from the 2005 and 2008 lows. The other side of the coin is, while the market remains above the line, a bullish outcome is possible.



GOLD.AX daily and monthly candlestick charts

The daily chart shows that GOLD.AX gapped higher to start the week. From there it declined relentlessly, ending the week back below the trend line.


The monthly chart indicates that the long term up trend is intact so long as the May low holds (149.5)


Silver daily and weekly candlestick charts

The daily candlestick chart shows silver re-testing the top of the recent down trend channel.


The weekly candlestick chart shows silver continuing to trade above the trend line drawn from the early 90s highs. A move below that trend line would open the way for a large decline toward the trend line drawn from the 2003 and 2008 lows. The other side of the coin is that while silver remains above that line, a bullish outcome is possible.