Thursday, 17 May 2012

ASX 200 smashes through trend line, medium term targets are 3400 and then 2300

The first chart shows the ASX 200 spectacularly breaking the trend line zone that I had been tracking.

What's next? Maybe a test of a more conventional trend line drawn from the price extremes of last August and October.

But really, who knows. We're in a bear market, as the next long trem chart shows, and there is no such thing as support in a bear market. The mid-channel line suggests a target of 3400, and the lower trend channel line suggests a target of 2300. Let's wait and see.

S&P 500 my long term road map suggests potential for considerable weakness

The recent false break above the trend channel / trading range suggests impending weakness. I showed the same chart last year several times, labelled as a giant Head and Shoulders top. Still a valid interpretation.

AUD/USD trading below down trend channel

The lower channel line could now act as resistance. An acceleration out of a trend channel is classic confirmation of an Elliott Wave 3rd wave.

EUR/USD a longer term view

The EUR/USD has recently broken the trend line drawn from the 2010 and 2011 lows. This opens the way for a test of the January 2011 low. Next would be a test of the trend line drawn from the 2001 and 2002 lows.

Gold's long term trend channels

The following chart shows Gold recently breaking lower from the trend channel began at the late 2008 low. A decline below the December 2011 low at 1523ish would open the way for a decline toward a longer term trend line, which offers potential support around 1350.

DAX dancing with the cliff's edge

A couple of weeks ago I suggested that the DAX was beginning a steep Elliott Wave 3rd wave decline. A break below the nearby trend line would add weight to that view.

USD/JPY shows bullish trend line break

First some context (maybe too much!).... a chart showing the USD/JPY since the late 70s. Two points to note (1) the USD/JPY wedged in to a bottom, indicating a rally target above 1.20, where the wedge began; and (2) last week the USD/JPY re-tested the 1995 low.

Zooming in to the past year's trade, the following chart shows the USD/JPY breaking upwards through the recent down trend line.