Saturday, 5 May 2012

ASX 200 closed the week's after hours trading at 4345, down sharply from Friday's ASX close of 4396

Mid-afternoon on Friday I tweeted "ASX 200 opened the week at 4373, peaked at 4449, now 4398. There is going to be a long Upper Shadow on the weekly candle stick - bearish". Just how immediately bearish I couldn't have guessed. The ASX 200 closed the week's after hours trading at 4345, down sharply from Friday's ASX close of 4396.

The following weekly candlestick chart shows the long Upper Shadow that I tweeted about, on the rightmost Shooting Star candlestick. Note also that the market has made a false break above the October high. The Shooting Star candlestick is a bearish set-up, which requires confirmation from the next candle. In this case the after hours market decline makes it a certainty that the bearish set-up will be confirmed during next week's ASX trade.

The next chart illustrates the end of week after hours trading closing level, set against the range bound trade of the past few months. The market is on the cusp of returning below the resistance zone that has capped most market activity since August 2011.

The final chart puts all the above in context. The ASX 200 is in a long term bear market, trading within a clearly defined down trend channel. 

AUD/USD breaks below triangle apex level, and confirms that a 3rd wave decline is now beginning

The apex level acted as support and should now act as resistance. I haven't labelled the Elliott Waves on today's chart, but wave 3 of C down is now beginning. You can see the waves labelled on Thursday's post, which highlighted a target of mid to low 90s. For those unfamiliar with EW, it's sufficient to know that 3rd waves are most often the fastest, furthest, and most persistent moves.

EUR/USD chart question "neckline or support?" should be answered next week

Next week we should learn the answer to the question that my EUR/USD charts have been posing recently - neckline or support?

German DAX likely beginning a steep 3rd wave decline

The Elliott Waves have been clear for the DAX since the May 2011 peak. The only question mark is, has wave 2 ended? Probably, but more consolidation in wave 2 is possible.

US stocks smashed on Friday. NASDAQ 100 is on the cusp of completing a bearish throw-over

US stocks declined sharply on Friday. The S&P 500 is once again testing the potential support zone surrounding the 2011 highs.

The NASDAQ 100 failed to continue higher following its break upwards from the short term down trend channel, and is now on the cusp of completing a bearish throw-over of the trend channel that captured the initial rise from the August 2011 low.

Gold continues trading in tight range

Gold has been trading in a tight range for almost two months.

Zooming out, the trend line drawn from the 2008 low is being pressured.

Silver trending lower beneath support shelf

Canberra and Queanbeyan housing stock on market to 5 May 2012

Blogger Capital Appreciation over at has quite rightly called shenanigans on the recent volatility in the allhomes numbers. Can you trust any numbers coming out of the real estate industry? In any case, the number of listings is trending up and sitting at much higher levels than a year ago.