Thursday, 3 May 2012

AUD/USD Elliott Wave count suggests that this market is headed below parity

Yes, I know it was only the weekend when I was entertaining mid 1.20s. With my market analysis, I like to keep an open mind. Not so with any individual trade, but that's a different topic.

On Tuesday, I suggested that the AUD/USD had completed a classic Elliott Wave A-B-C upwards correction during April, implying lower prices ahead.

I have now plugged that A-B-C in to my bigger picture Elliott Wave count from late March, which illustrates a big picture A-B-C flat correction from the mid-2011 high . If (IF) this count is correct, we see that big wave B peaked in late March, and that big wave C is under way. Big wave C should test or exceed the low of big wave A, so mid to low 90s.

I have high confidence in this count so long as the market stays below the recent wave 2 high, and especially if it can soon break below the recent wave 1 low. The only niggling problem with it is that I can't count the sub-waves of wave 1 impulsively. But Elliott Wave is a model, nothing more, nothing less, and like any model it is not gospel. Especially at lower degrees of trend (below daily chart) the sub-waves do not always unfold as per the model.