Tuesday, 1 May 2012
40 minutes before this afternoon's RBA rate cut announcement, I tweeted that the AUD/USD was testing 1.04 and needed to get back above 1.0435 real quick for the bullish big picture to stay on the table as an option. Following the subsequent decline, the long term bullish measured target from my weekend AUD/USD post is in serious jeopardy. The flaw in my logic was assuming that the apex level tests were complete. The failure early this week of the AUD/USD to push above last week's high set up a classic 3 wave Elliott Wave correction A-B-C, which calls for prices to fall below the previous low. So the symmetrical triangle apex level looks set to be re-tested, at the least. I am not sure how the A-B-C correction fits in to a larger pattern, hence the ? on the chart.
In after hours trade the ASX 200 is trading at 4409, down from the ASX close of 4430, and is currently showing a(nother) potential Shooting Star candlestick.... last week there was one on the cash index, which didn't result in a reversal.