On Tuesday I suggested that a move by the S&P 500 / SPX below Monday's low would be a sign that the wedge pattern had completed and that the S&P would decline. Well an hour or so in to tonight's European session, here we are. A move below the lower trend line would confirm a top of some importance, though keep in mind that the trend on the weekly and month charts is up.
sharply declining AUD/USD. Don't forget that the megaphone is a bearish pattern, which in combination with the S&P's wedge pattern, suggests that the present global stock market decline has further to run.
Thursday, 22 March 2012
If the Elliott wave count I presented two nights ago is correct, today's break below 1.0380 suggests the AUD/USD should now trend downwards to test 0.94. Regardless of Elliott Wave considerations, the near term trend now looks to be down. A sustained move below 1.0332 should remove any doubt about that.