Tuesday, 20 March 2012

DAX could be breaking down, ASX 200 weakens further

This evening the lynchpin European index, the German DAX, is pushing below the trend line drawn from its recent rally highs, an indication of weakness.

In after hours trade the ASX 200 is currently trading at 4247, down 28 points from the ASX close of 4275. The bearish megaphone pattern suggests that lower prices lie ahead.

Today's declines could be reversed if the US rallies again later tonight. In after hours trade the S&P 500 / SPX is trading at 1402, down approximately 8 points from the New York close. A move below last night's low would be an early sign that the wedge pattern is complete, opening the way for a decline.

AUD/USD the near term Elliott Wave alternates

You know what they say about the best laid plans of mice and men. Despite all the bullish evidence on hand at the weekend, the AUD/USD has retreated this week, and it is time to consider both the bullish and bearish alternates. The following Elliott Wave counts suggest that a move below the wave 1 high would raise the bearish case to preferred alternate status, placing big wave C down in its early stages. Until the wave 1 high is broken, the bullish alternate maintains the upper hand, with a continued big wave B rally to test the 2011 high.