Thursday, 15 March 2012

S&P 500 and ASX 200 are still the same market

Both the US S&P 500 and Australian ASX 200 bottomed in early October. Since then the S&P 500 has rallied over 25% and recently beaten its 2011 high, while the ASX 200 has barely risen 10%, and is almost 20% below its 2011 high. These figures of course assume that the S&P 500 is priced in US dollars, and the ASX 200 is priced in Australian dollars.

The following chart shows both markets priced in US dollars since their October lows. Allowing for some of the big Aussie stocks going ex-dividend in recent weeks, while US stock yields are lower, we see that the two markets have tracked very closely, similar to the comparison for 2011.

S&P 500 is wedging in to a top

A completed throw over or false upward break through the topmost wedge trend line would be a classic reversal signal. Or failing that, a break through the lower trend line.