Saturday, 3 March 2012

S&P 500 has potentially double topped at the 2011 high

Last week the S&P 500 (SPX)  broke above the 2011 high by 2 two points, before completing an outside reversal day / bearish engulfing pattern. Today I have zoomed outwards to better illustrate the significance of the 2011 high. A move below the trend channel now could indicate a large double top, while a continued move higher would raise the odds for the larger degree bullish case discussed recently (here).

ASX 200 still testing trend line drawn from October low

The ASX 200 (SPI) is testing the trend line drawn from the October low. A sustained break below the trend line early next week would lead to a bearish triple moving average cross. A similar bearish triple cross formed in late August at the top left hand corner of the chart.

EUR/USD channelling lower

Time for some fresh lines on the EUR/USD. A move below the nearby short term up trend line would indicate continuation of the down trend.

AUD/USD kissing goodbye?

The AUD/USD held up this week, tracking the US stock market more closely than the EUR/USD. Is it kissing goodbye to the trend line? Or will it continue higher? To my eye, while the AUD/USD remains above 1.06, it's likely to trend higher and test the 2011 highs.

Gold channelling lower?

Time for some fresh lines on the Gold chart. The illustrated trend channel jumped out at me from the chart just today. I didn't spot it before the turn lower... Seems a good fit for now.

Silver turns down at trend line

Previously I have shown the Silver daily chart with arithmetic scale, but this week I have changed to log scale for a slightly better fit. The turn down at the trend line is evident utilising either scale.

Canberra and Queanbeyan housing stock on market to 3 March 2012

The number of properties For Sale has risen back over 3000. The number of properties For Rent often bottoms in March, let's wait and see if that is the case this year. Each week is seemingly bringing new announcements of public service job cuts, rolling from one department to the next. Presumably the increase in listings combined with a shrinking or at best flat jobs market will put downwards pressure on prices going forward.

If you'd like some more detailed analysis of the Canberra property market, I recently discovered blogger Capital Appreciation's Canberra House Prices site and can recommend having a look (http://www.canberrahouseprices.com/)