Thursday, 16 February 2012

ASX 200 breaks lower

Recently I have drawn the pattern on the ASX 200 daily chart as an ascending triangle. Trading this week and particularly today suggests that the consolidation over the past few months was instead a symmetrical triangle, and that the action since late January was a weak upside break from that triangle. That upside break has now failed, opening a path for further weakness, especially while the market remains below the illustrated down trend line.

Daily candlestick chart shown below, including after hours trade.

EUR/USD bullish case almost wedgied

As I've stated before, the wedge in to the bottom for the EUR/USD is a bullish edge, but the bullish case is on shaky ground. If the market breaks lower from here to below 1.30 and the 40 day moving average, I would favour further downside, given that the weekly chart trend is down, and particularly while the market remains below the 18 day moving average.