Saturday, 4 February 2012

S&P 500 indicators show bullish edges for investors

Two indicators on the S&P 500 monthly chart are showing bullish edges. The monthly chart time frame is suited to investors, but is also one that traders need to watch, as they must be foolish (or very nimble) to trade against the long term trend.

(1) The moving averages are indicating an up trend.
(2) MACDH has flipped from negative to positive. MACDH is a measure of momentum. If you study the monthly chart for the past 20 years, you will see that MACDH doesn't flip from negative to positive very often, but that these occurrences have been a very successful bullish edge at this time frame.

Other than the possibility that I am either foolish or nimble, why did I post an hourly chart bearish edge last week? Simply put, often failed edges are the best trades to take. Within a long-term bull market I find that good bullish entries can be made when short-term bearish set-ups fail. Therefore, short-term bearish set-ups are worth identifying and monitoring.

AUD/USD could rise above 1.20

If the AUD/USD trades higher on Monday, above the resistance zone shown on the chart, it will likely rise to test the 2011 highs near 1.11.

If the 2011 highs are beaten, the measured target of mid 1.20s is calculated by adding the widest height of the triangle to the break out price. Approximately 1.04 break out price + 0.20 widest height.

ASX 200 forming an ascending triangle

EUR/USD targeting a rise to 1.42

The EUR/USD wedged in to a bottom, which gives a measured target of the top of the wedge.

Gold's short term trend is up

So too is the long term trend, though that is not the subject of this post.

Silver's short term trend is up

Canberra and Queanbeyan housing stock on market to 4 February 2012

The number of properties for sale has bottomed in late January, as it does most years, with almost 1/3 more properties on the market at this years trough than at the equivalent bottom last year.