Sunday, 29 January 2012

Back to work

I have posted fairly regularly to this site over the Australian summer holiday season, but my trading head has been on holidays. I haven't followed the market action as closely as I did pre-Christmas.

For me personally the trading year ramps up from tomorrow, Monday January 30. In preparation for that I have turned my trading brain back on. In that spirit, this evening I've posted about some markets that I don't regularly follow or trade. Namely China, Japan, India, Germany, and the UK. Doubtless the action on these markets will impact the markets that I do commonly follow and trade.

If you missed today's earlier posts, all the markets that I regularly follow are nearing or testing key trend lines. Namely the S&P 500, ASX 200, EUR/USD, AUD/USD, Gold, and Silver. Also the NASDAQ 100, which I've recently taken more of an interest in. Take a look.

China H-shares tests trend line

The daily candlestick chart shows this index testing the topmost trend line of the channel that has captured market action since late October.

UK FTSE 100 tests resistance

Daily candlestick chart shows the FTSE testing potential resistance at the October high, and perhaps even turning down from that zone.

Hourly chart shows a trend line break, indicating weakness.

German DAX tests Fibo 0.618 retracement

The daily candlestick chart shows the Fibo retracement.

The hourly candlestick chart shows a clear trend channel.

Japanese Nikkei 225 tests Head and Shoulders neck line

Weekly candlestick chart.

Indian Nifty 50 rallies some more

The Indian Nifty 50 index has rallied strongly this year. From the 2010 peak, it looks to be trading correctively downwards inside a trend channel. The corrective nature of the decline implies an eventual move to above the highs of 2010. A break above the topmost trend channel line would indicate an increased potential for that move to be underway. Of all the global markets that I have studied, the Indian market provided the best returns for Australian investors in the decade leading to July last year.

Weekend charts wrap - hourly charts warn of potential near term weakness

Usually on the weekend I zoom out and post long term charts, often weekly candlestick charts. Yet earlier today I posted a mix of daily and hourly candlestick charts. Why? Recently most of the markets I post about on this site have been showing beautiful trend lines and channels on the hourly charts. Those trends may well continue, but every market I looked at today is at or near trend line resistance. Combine this with an abundance of overbought daily chart oscillators (not shown), and we need to be prepared for potential near term weakness across the Undollar complex. The hourly chart trend lines are my preferred tool for catching trend changes.

EUR/USD hits potential resistance

Daily candlestick chart. Potential resistance zone surrounds the October and November lows.

Hourly candlestick chart shows price hitting potential resistance at the top of the trend channel.

S&P 500 tests hourly chart trend line

A move below Friday's low would crack the trend line.

NASDAQ 100 potential hourly chart Head and Shoulders top

Maybe Peter Brandt's post about the NASDAQ 100, warning not to trust low volume advances is playing on my mind over much. Best beware. The trend lines will keep us on the right side of the market.

AUD/USD nearing potential resistance

Daily candlestick chart. Potential resistance overhead just below 1.08.

Hourly candlestick chart shows the market nearing potential trend line resistance.

Gold tests potential trend line resistance

Daily candlestick chart.

Hourly candlestick chart shows Gold testing potential trend line resistance.

Silver tests potential trend line resistance

Daily candlestick chart.

Hourly candlestick chart shows Silver testing potential trend line resistance.

ASX 200 yawn

I am disinterested in the ASX 200 at the moment. Other markets have been better for trading in recent months. The daily candlestick chart shows potential resistance nearby above the market.