I used to think that being a trader was the greatest teacher of humility, and then I discovered blogging...
Yesterday's "Big bullish edge" failed overnight, as the EUR/USD moved to new lows.
Why was it a "Big" bullish edge? Nothing to do with the odds of success (somewhere south of 50%), and all to do with the attractive potential risk:reward profile.
Yesterday's edge is gone but the set-up remains, though before pulling the trigger I would wait for a move above the down trend line as well as a move back inside the trend channel. Other less aggressive traders would wait for a clear up trend to develop. Others still would be short now, trading with the trend.