Friday, 13 January 2012

Big bullish edge for EUR/USD

No individual trading edge is guaranteed success, each individual trade is a roll of the dice, but if you're a trader or investor you need to be aware of this particular edge, as the implications of a successful follow through are big (BIG).

The current edge is a false break below the trend channel formed from last May's high. For those with an Elliott wave bent, the action since the May high looks like a large completed A-B-C correction, which implies a possible rise to above the 2011 high.

A move above the 2012 high would add confidence to the bullish view. I recommend reading Peter L. Brandt's post on the January effect in forex. At the time he wrote the article, his preferred scenario for the EUR/USD was bearish, but he did entertain and discuss the possibility of a bullish outcome.

The direction of the US dollar (USD) has been the main driver of markets since late 2007 or even earlier, and the EUR/USD is pretty much the inverse of the USD. If (IF) this bullish edge pays off and results in a medium or long-term rise in the EUR/USD, that rise will likely be accompanied by a rise in many other Undollar (ie. non-US dollar) tradeable instruments (eg. non-USD currencies, stocks, commods, gold etc). Added confidence in the broader implications of a continued EUR/USD rise would be gained if the S&P 500 can break decisively upwards through its Head and Shoulders top neckline, thereby invalidating the pattern. It's close, but not there yet.