Tuesday, 3 January 2012

A bullish opening to 2012

The ASX 200 has rallied to start 2012, with the daily chart now showing a bullish false break below the trend line drawn from the October, November and December lows. Also note the bullish MACDH divergence at the recent low.

The AUD/USD also started 2012 bullishly, extending its rise above the trend line drawn from the October and December highs. The upwards pointing moving averages indicate an up trend.

The EUR/USD broke temporarily upwards through 1.30 and the down trend line. Will it follow through above the intra-day highs? If so, then a wedge in to the recent bottom could be completed, indicating a possible rise to the level that the wedge started (1.42).

Gold extended its rise from the false break below the September low. Note the bullish MACDH divergence at the recent low.

I haven't posted about the Indian market in a while. Of all the global markets that I have studied, the Indian market provided the best returns for Australian investors in the decade leading to July last year. Below I have shown a long term chart of the Indian Nifty 50 index. It looks to be trading correctively downwards inside a trend channel, implying that a move to new highs lies ahead at some point. The bullish MACDH divergence indicates that a rally beginning now is a strong possibility, though a break above the topmost trend channel line would be required to indicate the increased possibility of a move to new highs.