Sunday, 4 December 2011

Gold is at a critical juncture

The long term trend is clearly up.

Zooming in to a chart of the past two years we see that momentum (MACDH) has just ticked up. In all other cases on the following chart, a tick up in momentum has been a good point to go long.

The daily chart below shows that a break of Friday's high will also be a break of the trend line drawn from the September high. The flip side to that is, failure to break higher or to sustain such a break will threaten the longer term bullish picture.

EUR/USD daily chart for the past eighteen months

The false downside breaks of both nearby trend lines is bullish. Against that, the trend is down at larger degree ie. on the weekly chart.

S&P 500 weekly chart

The illustrated down trend line angle has been of great value to me in recent years. An upwards break of the nearby line would slaughter the near term bearish case. The flip side of that is, shorts know exactly where their risk is.

ASX 200 daily chart

Muddled. Until the ASX 200 unmuddles, I'll be paying it less attention than I have in recent months.

AUD/USD daily chart for past two years

The trend is broadly up, but the extreme volatility of recent months makes forecasting of the near term action a mug's game.

Silver long term weekly chart

Silver tested the upper trend line from beneath last week. I have previously said that the throw over / false break looks complete... it may well be, but I spoke too soon, as it's still not certain.