Monday, 24 October 2011

S&P 500 rally looks like a normal correction, so far

The S&P 500 rally feels impressive, but has yet to retrace a Fibo 0.618 of the preceding move down. Also it has yet to test the Head and Shoulders neckline. Moves to either of those levels would be normal for a correction of the down trend. Only a sustained move above the neckline would challenge the larger degree bearish view. The lows from January, March, and June stand between the current market level and the neckline, and may act as resistance. The corrective nature of the rally of course implies that next strong trend is likely to be down to below the October lows.