Wednesday, 28 September 2011

ASX 200 set to open higher

Daily candlestick chart shown below, including after hours trading, currently at 4048, up from Tuesday's ASX 200 close of 4005. The trend is down at this time frame, and also on the weekly and monthly charts.

Note that the market is below resistance from previous lows around 4100. Also it is testing the 18 day moving average. I have circled 8 instances since the April peak where the market turned lower from tests of that moving average. There are also 2 instances where the market went higher for several day after testing it. Of course, that doesn't mean there's an 80% chance that market will turn down now! The moving average test doesn't make any prediction at all, but it does provide us with a point to measure our risk if (if!) the market turns lower today, say back below 4000.