Friday, 23 September 2011

Gold long term trend channel zoomed

It must look like I have have caught Gold fever today, given that I have posted four times on Gold. There's a simple explanation. I have been sitting on positions on other markets for several weeks, which is all well and good, but sitting is hard work for me... I am dying to open a new trade! The trigger finger is twitchy! The potential for a long edge on Gold in the next few days or couple of weeks looks high to me. So, one last look at Gold for today, and then I'm off to catch some zzzzzz's.

Two charts. First a log scale weekly candlestick chart for the past decade, illustrating the trend channel that Gold has traded in, and showing a strong mid channel line that has many price touches.

Next let's zoom in on the past three years trade on that same chart.The mid channel line is at 1660. While Gold continues to close above that level it has near term bullish potential. If it closes below that level, I will have to find another market and potential trade to watch for, to distract me from the hard work of sitting on my current trades. I wish it was cricket season, I always find sitting on trades easier when there's cricket to follow.

Gold continues down

Hourly candlestick chart. The potential double bottom has been broken to the downside. Luckily the potential was never confirmed and no buy signal indicated. As per the nearby trend line on this morning's daily chart, the 1700 level is key.

Gold potential double bottom

The hourly chart is showing a potential double bottom, and false trend line break. I should underline potential. Neither signal has yet been confirmed with a move through the nearby intraday high, and both potentials could be blown away in a matter of hours. While Gold is trading above 1700 it retains near term bullish potential, in my view. See also this morning's daily chart post.

ASX 200 set to open lower

Log scale weekly candlestick chart shown below, including after hours trading, currently at 3883, down from Thursday's ASX 200 close of 3965.

The lowest trend channel line indicates an eventual target of the ASX 200 of around 2500. The mid channel line provided support to end both the first downwards thrust of 2008 and the thrust lower last month. Perhaps it will provide support again in coming days. That said, don't forget that the trend is down.

Gold daily chart

Daily candlestick chart shown below. Gold may find support at the nearby trend line, parallel to many others that have proved significant over the decade, including many not visible in this chart (but illustrated here). Then again, it may not. Or it may rally to new highs without touching the line. Anything could happen, but this market is worth watching I think. As stated last night, I don't think the Gold bull market can finish without a blow-off above its long term trend line, so above 2000.

AUD/USD smashed

Daily candlestick chart shown. I wonder if that target trend line will provide any support, given the recent rate of decline, or will the market slice lower.

S&P 500 breaks lower from trend channel

Daily candlestick chart shown below.

EUR/USD breaks lower from trend channel

Daily candlestick chart shown below.

Silver breaks below trend channel and tests trend line

Daily candlestick chart shown below.