Monday, 8 August 2011

ASX SPI 200 bullish scenarios eliminated (updated)

In my opinion, the bullish scenarios from yesterday's post have been eliminated. The only scenario still valid is the bearish case, shown here once again on a monthly chart...


Of course, the market will not move down in a straight line. There will be rallies, but so long as the market stays below the current monthly high, I will view the bearish case as operative, and will anticipate a likely test of the 2009 lows in coming months.

AUD/USD looks to be heading below parity

The daily chart suggests that the AUD/USD is headed south to test the next lower trend channel line, below parity. Only a rally above the nearby overhead trend lines would change that view...



The hourly chart shows the current best fit trend channel...



What, no Elliott Wave?? I had my fun, time to move on. The point of those wave counts was to test the bearish case, see if I could find a worthy bullish case. The final three wave move up on the daily chart still bugs me, but for my trading time frame, I am satisfied that the near term trend at least is down. The bigger picture will sort itself out in due course.

AUD/USD 5 minute chart Elliott Wave count

5 min chart??? Elliott Wave AGAIN??? Why??? Just for fun, as I while away the time waiting for the action to crank up in what promises to be an exciting week. Remember the larger degree Elliott Wave count calls for a bounce. This chart shows the action from last week's low through to Monday August 8 6:48am Oz EST. With a completed impulsive 1-2-3-4-5, followed by an A-B-C, the Elliott Wave count calls for the market to move higher... scrap that view if last week's low is broken....