Saturday, 6 August 2011

Global stocks weekly charts

The big bad global bear is back, probably. We need follow through below last week's lows to be certain. I say this because the S&P 500, ASX SPI 200, DAX and FTSE are all now testing important trend lines, and the Asian markets did not display so much weakness last week as Western markets.

US S&P 500... the decline following the Head and Shoulders has already hit its measured target....



Aussie ASX SPI 200...



German DAX...



UK FTSE....



China H-shares...



India Nifty 50...



Japanese Nikkei...



AUD/USD Elliott Wave count

There's no change to the message from my post of 24 hours ago. The move down from the Top is corrective (ie. A-B-C not 1-2-3-4-5), which implies that a move to new highs should follow. The only thing I would add is, that move could begin from current levels or from lower levels.

I have updated the Elliott Wave count on the hourly chart to include Friday's final squiggles... the 5th wave down extended...


Let's also look at the daily chart, as the ending upward A-B-C move on the daily was what prompted me to think in Elliott Wave terms. Remember, the final wave in an impulsive move should be a 1-2-3-4-5, not an A-B-C. So that peak at the end of wave C should not be the final peak, the market should move above July's high, either starting now or from lower levels in the future. Daily chart....


Why am I publishing an Elliott Wave count when I do so very infrequently? Elliott Wave is just one of many tools / indicators in the bag. When any tool / indicator screams out a message, it's worth listening. Whether you pay any attention to the message will depend on your own trading plan.