Tuesday, 2 August 2011

ASX SPI 200 monthly momentum turns negative

With market volatility high and rising, I find it valuable to step back and look at the longer term charts. Here's the monthly chart, including overnight trading. Momentum has turned negative. The last time momentum changed from positive to negative was 2008. The market closed July below the 40 month moving average (MA). The last time the market changed from closing above that MA, to closing below it, was also 2008. Remember 2008?

S&P 500 long term head and shoulders top, tests trend line

Monthly chart. I have removed the question mark from the right shoulder. Let's go with the H & S top for now. Target is below zero, due to my use of arithmetic scale. Should be fun. Trend line from the early 2009 lows is being tested.

Peter L. Brandt has been discussing a similar scenario, I encourage you to take a look at his work.

German DAX smashed

Europe's engine room is in trouble, by the look of the chart. I haven't had time to check the news this morning, too busy posting charts. Weekly chart, strong move below trend line, and the run up from 2009 looks like a wedge to me... weak.

AUD/USD smashed

Hourly chart. The AUD/USD didn't hold above the trend line for long...

Here's the monthly chart again, for good measure. The trend line crosses 1.1120...

EUR/USD smashed

Hourly chart. No sooner did I post EUR/USD upwards break, than the market turned down...

GBP/USD smashed

Hourly chart...