Thursday, 14 July 2011

Gold and Silver. Hey! Ho! Let's Go??

Always as a trader or analyst, use those question marks.

Gold daily chart covering the period since late 2009. Note the repeating trend channel angle. The topmost trend line is currently being tested. Note the bearish momentum (RSI) divergence between now and the peak in April. Note the bearishly crossed 18 and 40 day moving averages, which combined with the bullish price action, suggest highest odds for a sideways trend. If price breaches 1600, I'll throw all those quibbles in the bin, and change the ?? to a ! 

Silver daily chart for the past three months or so. No signs of a new bull market here. Price has yet to retrace even a Fibo 38.2% of the April and May decline.

I'll have that song stuck in my head all day now. 

USD Down

Daily charts for EUR/USD, AUD/USD, GBP/USD. I have more confidence in my analysis when these markets trend in synch, which they are currently not. All I can do for now is take each one at face value.

EUR/USD is testing the trend line. Bearishly crossed moving averages indicate that the trend is down, and the way that they crossed at the same point and subsequently spread quickly, raises the odds that a strong new trend is kicking off. 

AUD/USD continues to move broadly sideways.

GBP/USD. Support has held again, and the market looks to be headed for another re-test of the neckline. Failure to follow through quickly on the Head and Shoulders pattern has me questioning its validity.

ASX SPI 200 Hourly Chart Trend Line Test

Overnight (Oz time) the market tested the trend line drawn from the late June lows. While that trend line holds we can look for a re-test of the recent lows. 

S&P 500 Daily Chart Up Trend Intact

With all the recent shenanigans in Europe and the USA, the bullishly crossed 18 and 40 day moving averages indicate an up trend for the S&P 500.