Tuesday, 12 July 2011

Will Gold and Silver Join The Decline?

Of course, nobody knows the answer to that question. The following hourly charts are my roadmap for trading whatever these markets do in coming days.

Gold. A move downwards out of the recent sharp up trend line would raise the odds of Gold joining the recent general decline of assorted markets as measured against the USD.

Silver. I take the recent turn down from the nearby trend lines and the subsequent bearish cross of the moving averages as strong signs that Silver is joining the decline. 

ASX SPI 200 Showing Long Term Trend Weakness

Let's start with the weekly chart. The market is now (1) back below the trend line formed from the 2009 low (2) below the trend channel that contained price action for much of the past year  and (3) below the bearishly crossed moving averages. 
Let's have a look at the monthly chart. Momentum (MACDH) is close to turning negative. The market is currently crossing below the downward sloping 40 month moving  average. That combination presents the potential for a decline of equal brutality to 2008 (or perhaps greater).

USD Continues Higher, Some More...

EUR/USD daily chart. The hurdle I cited earlier (May's low) didn't prove a challenge for this runaway market. Will the next hurdle be the trend line drawn from the June 2010 lows, and if so will it prove more challenging? We'll have to wait and see. 

AUD/USD daily chart. Looks to be headed for another test of the top of the previous trend channel. If resilient trend lines are eventually broken, the subsequent price move tends to be spectacular. Which is not to say that this one will be broken, but worth keeping an eye on.
GBP/USD hourly chart. Bearing in mind the context of the Head and Shoulders top on the daily chart, with a target of 1.54ish, I wouldn't bet on the nearby hourly chart trend line providing much support.

USD Continues Higher

Daily candlestick charts today.

Next hurdle for the EUR/USD is the May low of 1.3970. 

GBP/USD looks to have decisively broken support. The target for the Head and Shoulders top is around 1.54.

The AUD/USD moved lower, but unlike the other two, is not (yet?) trending down at this time frame.