Tuesday, 14 June 2011

AUD/USD A Bullish Scenario

I came in to this week with a bearish bias toward the AUD/USD. The market action so far this week doesn't agree with that bias. Aggressive bulls and/or those with an exceptional ability to manage risk might trade an upwards breakout from the corrective trend channel that I have illustrated above. Given that markets spend only 1/3 of the time trending, I think it most likely that the market will continue to move broadly sideways, with a new trend not developing until either the May high or low is broken. All will be revealed to us, in time. 

ASX 200 Potential Double Bottom

The hourly candlestick chart for the month so far shows a potential double bottom on the ASX 200. The market moved lower after the open today, as anticipated on the weekend, but the weakness merely tested the overnight low from June 8, and then bounced strongly. A move over 4600 would confirm the double bottom and turn the trend up at this time frame, providing reason to re-examine the daily and weekly charts. Let's wait and see.

Gold and Silver Down

Gold has broken the trend line formed from the January lows. Likely it will now trend lower to test the top of the previous trading range, around 1460.

The title of my weekend Silver post was spot on, Silver was indeed on the cusp of its next move down.