Tuesday, 10 May 2011

ASX 200

No clear trend on the daily chart, though the bearish cross of the 18 day moving average (grey) below the 40 day ma (red) suggests that any move below last week's low at 4684 would have legs.

On the hourly chart, we see the beginnings of a bearish move below the upwards corrective trend channel of the past few days. Price is currently re-testing the lower line, so we don't yet have a clean break. The Federal budget speech is less than 90 mins away.

AUD/USD hourly

The AUD/USD is continuing to correct (upwards) at hourly chart level, following last week's move lower. If the above Elliott Wave count is correct, wave 5 to new lows will come next. A move above the wave 1 low at 1.0847 would invalidate the count and open the way for a test of the highs at 1.10.