Thursday, 2 July 2015

ASX 200 daily chart bullish RSI and MACDH divergences warn of further rally

Daily chart shows bullish divergences on the RSI and MACDH, warning of further rally. The aggressively bearish Elliott Wave count I had been showing does not seem to be working out, and now it appears that the move lower from the April high could be complete. I may post an updated 4 hour chart in coming days to illustrate how the decline could be complete, though I am short of time today. Hint: there are five waves up from the low. Trading edges often fail, and I don't mind this as failed edges are powerful edges themselves. A problem arises if trading edges are interpreted as forecasts, something they are not.

Weekly chart

S&P 500 cash market retesting Head & Shoulders top neckline, beware of a bullish failure

On Wednesday the cash S&P rallied to retest the neckline of the illustrated Head and Shoulders top.

The futures have rallied during Asian and European trade, putting a bullish failure of the H & S top on the cards. For now, simply something to consider. Trend line resistance on the futures is very nearby. Let's see.

Wednesday, 1 July 2015

ASX 200 4 hour chart another clear 5 waves down and 3 up favours fresh downside

4 hour chart updates the Elliott Wave count. Since the count posted on the weekend, yet another 5 waves down has completed, followed by 3 waves up, a structure that continues to define the trend as down at this time frame. The latest/current wave C could reach higher, but it is not required. So long as the wave ii high is not beaten, this wave count remains favoured as does its near term bearish implication.

Weekly chart zooms out to show that key trend line support is being tested. The black trend line forming part of the illustrated trend channel connects the lows of waves 2 and 4, while the purple line is more conventional, connecting the extremes.

S&P 500 nearby trend line support and resistance appear key

The higher nearby trend line has been tested many times as support and then resistance, while the lower nearby trend line has been tested several times as support. A clean break of either would appear a key indicator of the next market trend.  

Tuesday, 30 June 2015

S&P 500 stuck between parallel trend lines after test of key support

AUD/USD rallies from test of key support, nearing resistance at parallel trend line

GOLD.AX looks set to rally

GOLD.AX is an ETF traded on the ASX which tracks Gold priced in AUD. The Elliott Wave count suggests that a 3rd wave higher is imminent, to be followed by a corrective 4th and then a 5th higher.

Monday, 29 June 2015

S&P 500 and Dow futures gap down to start week, then test trend line resistance from old supports

S&P 500 futures daily chart testing support turned resistance.

Dow futures daily chart for a longer period of time, also testing support turned resistance.