Sunday, 4 October 2015

S&P 500, ASX 200, Hang Seng, EURO STOXX weekly charts, more weakness ahead is likely

More downside to come, in my opinion. Though I don't trade my opinion, just the trend, which being down, happily agrees with my opinion, for now. Charts of all sessions trade.

S&P 500

ASX 200

Hang Seng


Gold rallies strongly from trend line support, bull flag from 2011 high bottoming?

Weekly chart shows that in late July Gold began a rally from trend channel support. Previous rallies from the nearby trend line have been good for 200, give or take. Why expect anything different this time?

Daily chart shows Gold on Friday rallied strongly from trend line support.

Monthly chart presents the proposition (for now highly speculative) that a bullish flag could have bottomed, ahead of a run to record highs.

Silver forming inverse Head & Shoulders bottom at weekly chart support

Weekly chart. The current consolidation from the late 2014 low is brief compared to the periods of consolidation from lows in 2011 and 2013, a hint that Silver may not yet break down? Indeed it seems a rally is beginning.

Daily chart shows inverse Head and Shoulders bottom.

Thursday, 1 October 2015

ASX 200 monthly close under trend line from 2009 & 2012 lows keeps focus on 2500 by end of 2016

Log scale chart of all sessions trade for the ASX 200 shows that the market closed September below the trend line drawn from the 2009 and 2012 lows. This keeps the illustrated Elliott Wave count and scenario as the best fit for market action since the 2007 peak.

Many others are instead tracking the linear scale chart, shown below, and declare that linear scale is the only correct scale to use. In my opinion there is no universal rule about which scale to use, as one or the other will be a better fit for a given market. Log scale looks a better fit for the ASX 200 to me. By better fit, I mean allows better fitting trend channels to be drawn. Horses for courses, you can make your own mind up.