Thursday, 27 August 2015

ASX 200 testing cluster of trend line resistance

ASX 200 daily chart including all sessions trade. Testing resistance at the January low, the lower line of the trend channel formed from the peak, and also the trend line drawn from the two lows in June.


S&P 500 turned lower from test of gap, December low, and 50 Fib of recent swift decline

Daily chart shows the S&P 500 today rallied to within a fraction of its December low, then turned lower. Both charts include all sessions trade.



4 hour chart shows the market also rallied to the lower end of the recent gap, and within a fraction of the 50 Fibo retracement of the recent swift decline. If the market rallies further, next cluster of resistance may be near round number resistance at 2000, which is close to the 61.8 Fib and trend channel resistance.


Wednesday, 26 August 2015

S&P 500 headed to test 1700 unless a multitude of overhead resistance levels are beaten

Monthly chart shows the S&P 500 testing parallel trend line support within a 25 year old trend channel. If support breaks the market will target 1700, and for now the trend is down so we must favour that outcome. What levels would the market need to rally through to suggest that the bearish case is unlikely? Let's zoom in to recent action. Charts include all sessions trade.



Daily chart shows that the nearest serious cluster of resistance lies between 1960 and 1980, with another between 2040 and 2050. The two most likely scenarios for coming weeks are that either (1) the current decline extends lower before rallying to test even the lower of those clusters or (2) the market thrashes broadly sideways for several weeks below the top cluster to establish a range, then breaks either lower or higher from that range... given the trend, most likely downwards. Let's see.



Gold falls to test dual trend line support after rally from long term trend channel support

Weekly chart shows Gold rallying from trend channel support. Previous rallies from the nearby trend line have been good for 200, give or take. At this point, why expect anything different this time?



Daily chart shows that after Gold's initial rally from the July low, it has fallen back to test dual trend support. Which would be a neat place for a tradeable low to form, though lower levels would not necessarily cancel the bullish picture for coming months.



4 hour chart zooms in to show the best fit wave count for recent action. Following five waves up and a three wave correction, look for another five waves up. The three wave correction may not yet have bottomed, and could morph in to a more complex correction. Another important trend line support is shown, being the top of the trend channel. A move back to test the area of wave 4 is another common stopping point for corrective waves. Let's see.




AUD/USD significant low in at support from 14 year old up trend line?

Monthly chart shows the AUD/USD testing support at a 14 year old trend line, drawn from the lows of 2001 and 2008. After a brief pop lower through support, the market is now back trading above it. Let's drill down to see if there is other evidence that a significant low could be in. First though, as an interesting aside, if a seven year cycle is in place, 2015 would be time for the next big low.



Weekly chart shows that the AUD/USD has been sliding lower down trend line support, and is currently just below the down trend line in question. So there is no additional evidence of a low here, unless we see a rally back above the down trend line.



Daily chart backs the call that a significant low could be in. Markets are inherently uncertain but at the least a good risk to reward setup has presented. I'll explain why. The market has completed a five wave decline from the top in May of this year, which calls for a rally back toward the area of wave 4, at the least. Note that the market's decline so far halted at the parallel of the line drawn from the tops of wave 2 and wave 4, when projected from the low point of wave 3. This is classic Elliott Wave and indeed market behaviour. Combine all that with the brief poke lower through the 14 year old trend line, and a significant low could be in, with an initial target of 74.50ish, and the potential for higher levels subsequently.


Tuesday, 25 August 2015

S&P 500 decline pauses at internal line of 25 year old trend channel. 1700 next?

Monthly chart shows the S&P 500 all sessions. Monday's fierce decline was halted around an internal trend line of the illustrated 25 year old trend channel, a channel and line that I have published many times in recent months. Was anybody watching? Probably a temporary halt, with further lows ahead.



Zooming in a tad also on the monthly, more clearly illustrates a target around 1700 in coming days, weeks, or months. Or hours? At the trend line drawn from the 2009 and 2011 lows.


Monday, 24 August 2015

ASX 200 slices lower through 5000, continuing journey toward 2500

Monthly chart shown below for the ASX 200, including after hours trade. Each move below trend line support raises the odds for this scenario. For the ASX 200 I will only post this chart tonight, as those trend line breaks are huge, and shorter term charts will not add value. Favour lower levels in coming weeks and months, especially if the market remains below the blue trend line.



Saturday, 22 August 2015

Global bear market - US, European, Chinese, Australian and Japanese stock indexes charted

A global decline in stocks is just beginning. I want to highlight that message for my readers in case it got lost among the charts of 11 different globally traded markets that I published earlier today.

This post shows charts of US, European, Chinese, Australian and Japanese stock indexes. The near term trend has turned down for all those markets, and they are all at junctures where the larger degree trend could also have turned down. My reading of the charts is that they will all trend toward much lower levels in coming months. There will be fierce rallies within those down trends, perhaps a rally starting as soon as Monday, but lower levels should follow. All charts in this post include all sessions trade through to the end of the week.

The bearish case for the US is presented below on a monthly chart of the S&P 500, showing a bearish false upside break from the trend channel formed from 2009's low. Such false breaks are a classic indicator of trend reversal. Today's full post for the S&P 500 is here, which shows several other charts.



The bearish case for Europe is presented below on a monthly chart of the EURO STOXX 50 index. This market also shows a bearish false upside break, a sign of trend reversal. This market is clearly weaker than the S&P 500, as it is still far below its 2007 high and even further below its 2000 high. Today's full post for the EURO STOXX is here, which shows several other charts.



The bearish case for China is presented below on a weekly chart of the Hang Seng index. Why do I show the Hang Seng and not the Shanghai Composite? I'll answer that with a question. Do you trust ANY numbers coming out of mainland China? Today's full post for the Hang Seng is here, which shows several other charts, one illustrating a forecast 50%+ decline.



The bearish case for Australia is presented below on a weekly chart of the ASX 200, which shows it slicing through several major supports, with another line nearby that will likely be tested soon. This market is clearly weaker than the S&P 500, as it is still far below its 2007 high (not shown). Today's full post for the ASX 200 is here, which shows several other charts, one illustrating a forecast 50% decline.



The final chart is a weekly for the Japanese Nikkei. The Nikkei is not yet in a confirmed decline at this timeframe, but a move below last week's low would break both major trend line supports illustrated below. From a longer term point of view, this market is weaker than all the others I've shown tonight, as it has been making fresh lows for several decades. On long term charts there is as yet no evidence of a lasting low. Today's full post for the Nikkei is here, which shows several other charts.