Click to view the most recent posts for ASX 200, S&P 500, Hang Seng, Gold, Silver, AUD/USD, EUR/USD.

Wednesday, 29 October 2014

ASX 200 despite the recent rally, no reason yet to doubt that a big decline has begun

Daily chart shows the ASX 200 testing the Fibo 61.8% retracement of the recent decline. So, a decent rally, but well within the expectations for an upwards correction, if the larger degree trend is now down, as I believe it could be.

Monthly chart shows that the recent trend line break is intact, and there is as yet no reason to question the strongly bearish outlook presented by the illustrated Elliott wave count.

S&P 500 testing confluence of resistance

S&P 500 daily chart resistance is shown in the first chart. Potential resistance. There is no such thing as resistance in a bull market. So, if we're still in a bull market, the S&P will power on through. On the other hand, failure to meaningfully breach the illustrated levels and hit new record highs would keep alive the prospect that the market is in the early stages of a 60%+ decline. Guess we'll find out soon.

Weekly chart shows that the market is also testing the underside of the trend line drawn from lows in 2011, 2012 and 2014. Will the market power to new highs, or turn lower to re-test the line drawn from the 2009 and 2011 lows?

Hang Seng trading in an upwards corrective trend channel (flag), setting up for another move lower

Daily chart shows the Hang Seng trading in a short term upwards corrective trend channel, running parallel to the channel from earlier in the year. Call it a flag if you prefer. The implication is that the market is setting up for another move lower.

Weekly chart next, illustrates my big picture Elliott wave count, suggesting that "lower" could be an understatement.

Monday, 27 October 2014

Gold testing resistance at short term down trend line

4 hour chart shows gold testing resistance at the illustrated down trend line. As posted late last week, the trend is down on the daily, weekly, and monthly charts.

Wednesday, 22 October 2014

ASX 200 testing resistance at recent lows

Daily chart shows ASX 200 testing resistance at recent lows. The market has rallied a Fibo 50% of the recent decline. 61.8% would be my maximum expectation, if the larger trend has turned down, so 5460 or so.

Weekly supports the view that the larger trend could be turning lower. Could. Those nearby MA's should cap any rally, so again 5460ish is the max. There's not much wriggle room. Let's see.

German DAX testing giant Head and Shoulder top neckline from below, crucial action here

The DAX is testing its Head and Shoulders top neckline from below. Crucial action here I think, with implications for equities worldwide. Has the Head and Shoulders top decisively turned the DAX's trend to down? Will we see a turn lower from the neckline? Or a move higher through the neckline, invalidating the pattern and allowing further rally?

Gold showing short term up trend within larger down trend

4 hour chart shows Gold's short term up trend.

Daily chart suggests that the next higher degree of trend remains down.

Weekly chart shows a symmetrical triangle suggesting a measured target of below 1100.

Monthly chart shows that Gold recently broke the trend line defining its bull market. By that measure, the bull market is finished.

Silver trending lower, toward 13.00

Daily chart shows Silver's recent strong down trend. There is no evidence that any lasting low has been made.

Weekly chart trend channel suggests a target of near 13.00 in coming months.