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Tuesday, 26 August 2014

ASX 200 completing false upside break from bearish wedge? At long term trend line resistance

Daily chart begs the question, is the ASX 200 completing a false upside break from the illustrated bearish wedge? If so it should precede a fresh down trend.

Weekly chart reminds us that the market is testing long term trend line resistance, and also tells us that this market is weak, trading a long way below its 2007 peak while other markets globally are near or at record highs. This relative weakness suggests that the ASX 200 will fall faster and further than most when/if global stocks head lower.

S&P 500 testing dual trend line resistance, fresh highs could target 2023

Daily chart shows the S&P 500 testing dual trend line resistance, having reached 2000 as speculated in last Thursday's post. The Elliott Wave pattern counts as complete so the rally may have peaked, but if fresh highs are made, a strong target is 2023, where wave 5's length would be a Fibo 1.618 times wave 1. When I say the rally may have peaked, I not only mean the five wave rally shown here, but possibly the entire rally from the 2009 low, as per my long term wave counts posted in late July. So a big top is in, or close.

Gold rallying from near key trend line support, forming triangle for past year

Daily chart shows Gold rallying from near key trend line support. It also shows that Gold has been forming a triangle for the past year.

Zooming out to the weekly chart, it's worth noting that triangles commonly break in the direction of the prior trend, in this case down. So look for the next big move for Gold to be down, to below the 2013 lows.

Thursday, 21 August 2014

ASX 200 hits fresh highs for 2014, testing long term trend line resistance AGAIN

Weekly chart shows the ASX 200 hitting fresh highs for 2014, once again testing long term trend line resistance. On Monday I showed monthly, weekly, and daily chart Elliott Wave counts to argue that the July high was likely the peak of the rally from 2009's low. Plainly July was not the peak, but the current test of trend line resistance, plus the monthly and weekly counts, all argue that the rally is running on fumes.

S&P 500 new highs ahead? Targeting 2000 initially?

Daily chart shows the S&P 500 approaching fresh highs. New highs look to be a given at this point. Whether or not they eventuate, the illustrated Elliott Wave count suggests that the current rally will be the final leg higher from the April low. The bigger picture count illustrated in previous posts suggests that this final fifth wave will complete the entire rally from the 2009 low. An initial target for new highs would be round number resistance at 2000, which coincides with dual trend line resistance. Small upside potential relative to the large downside potential.

Gold heading for test of key up trend line, larger trend down

Daily chart suggests Gold appears to be headed for a test of potential support at the illustrated up trend line.

Weekly chart shows that the larger trend is down, with much nearby overhead resistance pressuring the market lower. The down trend favours (much) lower prices ahead, but while the nearby up trend line holds, a rally toward and beyond the July high can't be ruled out.