Friday, 29 April 2016

Nikkei big picture, 2015 peak at 32 year old trend channel resistance, key support nearby

Monthly chart shows that the Nikkei's 2015 peak occurred at the top of a down trend channel that has captured market action for 32 years. The February low is key, coinciding with nearby potential trend lines support.



Weekly chart shows a different nearby trend line which offers potential support, echoing the monthly chart suggestion that the February low is key. Below that, the Nikkei will likely enter a new protracted plunge.


Thursday, 28 April 2016

ASX 200, S&P 500, Nikkei, Hang Seng, STOXX 50, Nifty all lower at trend line resistance

Charts in this post are dailies, all sessions trade.

ASX 200



S&P 500 bearish false break above resistance almost confirmed. Below I show the Dow and NASDAQ 100 whose declines from resistance are clearer, which boosts the case that the S&P will continue lower.



Dow



NASDAQ 100



Nikkei



Hang Seng, admittedly not a decisive sell off yet



EURO STOXX 50



Nifty


AUD/USD testing dual daily chart trend line support, ahead of strong advance?

Daily chart for AUD/USD shows it is testing dual trend line support. I have revised the wave count slightly from previous posts, now looks a better fit for the trend lines and the waves on the intra day charts. This count sees a running flat as complete or nearly so, to be followed by a strong five wave advance from near current levels.



Monthly chart shows 7.x year cycle currently acting as a bullish tidal force. If the market is to remain above the nearby trend line in to month's end, it must close Friday above 75.50ish. Anything else could call in to question the bullish case.


Wednesday, 27 April 2016

NASDAQ 100 lower from juncture of daily & weekly chart trend lines

I haven't posted a NASDAQ 100 big picture chart for some time. Today's a good day to rectify that. Weekly chart including all sessions trade.



Daily for good measure.





Short ASX 200 and NASDAQ 100

Some who follow me on Twitter will have seen that today I went short the ASX 200 (at 5243 stop 5295, see tweet here for timestamp) and last week went short the NASDAQ 100 (at 4535 stop 4594, see tweet here for timestamp).

Even though trading is a far more interesting topic than charting I don't often share my market positioning, largely because I mostly trade hourly charts and there is simply not time to discuss all or even many of my trades.

On this occasion I thought I would record these trade entries on the blog, as given my reading of the big picture charts I believe there is good potential for these positions to go my way for months. I most recently posted charts for the ASX 200 here and NASDAQ 100 here, though the NASDAQ post does not cover the big picture.

Also I am sharing as an experiment to see if my head can handle it. If the trades go against me, I'll be stopped out, no worries, that's easy. But if they go my way, will it mess with my head and ability to hold an optimum time? Let's see, I hope.

This post is not advice or a recommendation to take any action yourself yada yada, see full disclaimer here.


Tuesday, 26 April 2016

ASX 200 below 5200 would break trend line support, & begin move below 4000?

ASX 200 daily chart, all sessions trade, shows that a move below 5200 would break trend line support, and boost the chances that another decline had begun.



Weekly line chart most cleanly shows the wave count that I am working. It calls for a strong large degree 3rd wave decline to commence when wave C is complete, as it now could be, moreso if the daily chart support is broken. Big wave 3 must be no shorter than big (black) wave 1, so at least 1300 points, which would take the ASX 200 below 4000. Then big waves 4 and 5 would unfold to even lower levels.


Sunday, 24 April 2016

Dow, ASX 200, Hang Seng, STOXX, Nikkei, Nifty ALL testing trend line resistance. S&P 500 testing support. NASDAQ 100 leading turn lower?

The Dow, ASX 200, Hang Seng, EURO STOXX 50, Nikkei, Nifty are all testing daily chart trend line resistance. The S&P 500 is testing support after a brief pop higher above resistance. The NASDAQ 100 looks to have turned lower.

The question is, will the NASDAQ 100 lead the broader US market and global stocks in to a new down leg? As the NASDAQ lagged the US blue chip rally in recent weeks, I pointed out several times that if the NASDAQ is not leading the way higher, then it is often preparing to lead the way lower. Or will markets globally brush resistance aside? 

Daily charts for all those the above listed markets follow, and include all sessions trade unless otherwise indicated.

The Dow is testing trend line resistance. Chart shows a bearish Elliott Wave count. There are bullish alternates, but unless the market beats nearby resistance, I favour this count.



ASX 200 testing trend line resistance.



Hang Seng testing trend line resistance.



EURO STOXX 50 testing trend line resistance.



Nikkei testing trend channel resistance.


Nifty testing trend line resistance. Labelled wave count is medium or long term bullish, but I am not certain it is correct, given the global picture, and that the rally from the recent low is not a clear 5 waves. 



S&P 500 is testing trend line support at prior resistance after a brief pop higher... a bearish false upside break? 



NASDAQ 100 cash market chart shows a bearish island reversal.



NASDAQ 100 all sessions chart shows a turn lower from trend line resistance.