Thursday, 11 February 2016

S&P 500, ASX 200, Nikkei, Hang Seng, EURO STOXX 50, Nifty corrections nearly complete

The S&P 500, ASX 200, Nikkei, Hang Seng, EURO STOXX 50, and Nifty indexes are all at or near major corrective trend channel support. Charts in this post include all sessions trade.

The Elliott Waves for all their moves lower from the peaks of 2015 count best as corrections, corrections that are complete or very nearly so. There are viable bearish alternate counts that would gain stature if we see much further decline, but at this point I still believe these markets are close to bottoming, and in most cases will soon embark on rallies to above their 2015 peaks.

S&P 500

ASX 200


Hang Seng


Nifty. The form of the decline is thing of beauty, almost brings tears to my eyes. Wonderful. Rally pending very soon, I believe.

Gold and Silver weekly charts, rallies likely have further to run

The current rallies by Gold and Silver likely have further to run in coming days, weeks, and possibly beyond, though both are approaching major trend line resistance.

Gold weekly

Silver weekly

EUR/USD testing trend channel resistance

USD/JPY testing trend line support, correction almost complete?

USD/JPY daily chart

Wednesday, 10 February 2016

ASX 200 daily chart shows bullish false downside break at two key supports

Today's new low by the ASX 200 surprised me. Markets often do. The rally back above the (all sessions) August and January lows has set up a bullish false downside break at two key trend line supports. This is occurring at the same time that other indexes around the globe appear to be completing the corrections from their 2015 peaks, as illustrated in posts yesterday.

The admittedly tortured wave count that I published yesterday was blown away by today's action. Dario Mofardin shared a feasible wave count for an impulsive decline with me today on Twitter. It may in time prove to be the best description of what is unfolding, but there are alternatives that count the decline as a correction. I don't favour any count at this time. At some point the picture will become clear, it always does.